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Santos vs Flamengo

Santos vs Flamengo 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 29)

Robbed

Santos drew despite more chances

Santos

2–2

Flamengo

2.8Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Santos would usually take 2.0 points and Flamengo 0.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Flamengo.

Santos −1.0 pts vs chancesFlamengo +0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Santos vs Flamengo stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Flamengo had clearly more shots on target

Santos

Flamengo

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Santos and Flamengo ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Flamengo win at 42% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santos – Palmeiras prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Santos vs Flamengo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo to win

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 804 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Flamengo ahead at half-time.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 549 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 34.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.

Santos Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santos 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 72%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Flamengo Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Flamengo 2+ goals.

Our model 63%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Santos vs Flamengo 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Santos vs Flamengo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Santos2

Flamengo2

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Santos2

Flamengo2

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

129%

X29%

242%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	69%	57%	43%	68%	32%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	69%	57%	43%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	37%	63%	72%	28%	91%	9%	98%	2%
	28%	72%	63%	38%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	37%	63%	72%	28%
	28%	72%	63%	38%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	91%	9%	98%	2%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

126%

X47%

227%

1st Score

143%

X10%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

19%

2-2

19%

1-1

18%

X-2

15%

X-1

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.3%

0-1

11.9%

0-0

9.8%

1-0

9.4%

1-2

8.7%

0-2

7.7%

2-1

7.3%

2-0

4.8%

2-2

4.7%

1-3

3.7%

0-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Santos vs Flamengo — Recent Form

Flamengo have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Santos have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Flamengo

Santos

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Flamengo

3/5

Santos

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Flamengo

1/5

Santos

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Flamengo

2/5

Santos

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Flamengo

3/5

Santos

4/5

First Half Result

Flamengo

3/5

Santos

3/5

Correct Score

Flamengo

1/5

Santos

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santos – Palmeiras prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).