Athletico PR vs Atlético Mineiro 2-2 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 29)
Athletico PR drew despite more chances
Athletico PR2–2
Atlético MineiroOn these chances Athletico PR would usually take 2.0 points and Atlético Mineiro 0.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Athletico PR.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Athletico PR vs Atlético Mineiro stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Athletico PR
Atlético Mineiro
10
Shots on target
9
3
Big chances
2
10
Corners
3
0
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
51%
Possession
49%
Athletico PR vs Atlético Mineiro — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Athletico PR to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,142 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,341 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,683 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Athletico PR 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,828 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,504 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Athletico PR vs Atlético Mineiro 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Athletico PR vs Atlético Mineiro. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Athletico PR2
Atlético Mineiro2Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Athletico PR2Atlético Mineiro2Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 57% | 43% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 53% | 47% |
| 47% | 53% | 81% | 19% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
19%
X-X
19%
2-2
9%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
14.1%
1-1
12.4%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
10.2%
0-0
9.0%
0-1
7.2%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
4.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Athletico PR vs Atlético Mineiro — Recent Form
Atlético Mineiro have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Athletico PR have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético MineiroAthletico PROur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Atlético MineiroAthletico PRBoth Teams to Score
Atlético MineiroAthletico PROver/Under 2.5 Goals
Atlético MineiroAthletico PROver/Under 3.5 Goals
Atlético MineiroAthletico PRFirst Half Result
Atlético MineiroAthletico PRCorrect Score
Atlético MineiroAthletico PR