Atlético Mineiro vs Santos 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 30)
Atlético Mineiro2–1
SantosOn these chances Atlético Mineiro would usually take 2.1 points and Santos 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Mineiro.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Atlético Mineiro vs Santos stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Atlético Mineiro had clearly more shots on target
Atlético Mineiro
Santos
5
Shots on target
3
3
Big chances
1
12
Corners
3
3
Yellow cards
4
50%
Possession
50%
Atlético Mineiro vs Santos — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,464 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,839 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,538 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
Santos 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Atlético Mineiro vs Santos 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Mineiro vs Santos. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Atlético Mineiro2
Santos1Winner
1 50%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Atlético Mineiro2Santos1Winner
1 50%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 65% | 35% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 54% | 46% |
| 41% | 59% | 75% | 25% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
18%
X-X
16%
2-2
10%
X-2
8%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
12.5%
1-1
12.2%
2-1
10.3%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
8.0%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
5.0%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.5%
0-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atlético Mineiro vs Santos — Recent Form
Atlético Mineiro have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Santos have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético MineiroSantosOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Atlético MineiroSantosBoth Teams to Score
Atlético MineiroSantosOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Atlético MineiroSantosOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Atlético MineiroSantosFirst Half Result
Atlético MineiroSantosCorrect Score
Atlético MineiroSantos