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Palmeiras vs Corinthians

Palmeiras vs Corinthians 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 30)

Fair result

Palmeiras

4–1

Corinthians

2.3Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Palmeiras would usually take 2.2 points and Corinthians 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Palmeiras.

Palmeiras +0.8 pts vs chancesCorinthians −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Palmeiras vs Corinthians stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Palmeiras had more than twice the shots on target

Palmeiras

Corinthians

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Palmeiras and Corinthians ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Palmeiras win with 62% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santos – Palmeiras prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Palmeiras vs Corinthians — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palmeiras to win

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 1,065 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palmeiras ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Palmeiras Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palmeiras 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Corinthians Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Corinthians 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 83%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Palmeiras vs Corinthians 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Palmeiras vs Corinthians. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Palmeiras4

Corinthians1

Winner

1 62%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Palmeiras4

Corinthians1

Winner

1 62%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

162%

X23%

215%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	64%	36%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	17%	83%	47%	53%	74%	26%	90%	10%
	51%	49%	83%	17%	96%	4%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	17%	83%	47%	53%
	51%	49%	83%	17%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	74%	26%	90%	10%
	96%	4%	99%	1%

1st Half

149%

X38%

213%

1st Score

168%

X8%

225%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

43%

X-1

20%

X-X

14%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

13.9%

2-0

12.1%

1-1

10.9%

2-1

10.4%

0-0

7.5%

3-0

7.1%

0-1

5.5%

3-1

5.5%

1-2

4.1%

2-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Palmeiras vs Corinthians — Recent Form

Palmeiras have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Corinthians have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Palmeiras

Corinthians

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Corinthians

3/5

Palmeiras

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Corinthians

1/5

Palmeiras

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Corinthians

1/5

Palmeiras

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Corinthians

2/5

Palmeiras

4/5

First Half Result

Corinthians

1/5

Palmeiras

4/5

Correct Score

Corinthians

0/5

Palmeiras

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santos – Palmeiras prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).