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Napoli vs Roma

Napoli vs Roma 3-3 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result

Napoli

3–3

Roma

2.0Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Napoli would usually take 1.5 points and Roma 1.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Napoli.

Napoli −0.5 pts vs chancesRoma −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Napoli vs Roma stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Napoli had more than twice the shots on target

Napoli

Roma

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

40%

Possession

61%

The match between Napoli and Roma ended 3-3. Our AI model predicted a Napoli win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Roma – Cagliari prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Napoli vs Roma — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Napoli to win

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 3,625 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,350 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,709 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Napoli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Napoli 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Roma Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Roma 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,674 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Napoli vs Roma 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Napoli vs Roma. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Napoli3

Roma3

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Napoli3

Roma3

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

143%

X26%

231%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%	58%	42%	82%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	44%	56%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	82%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	55%	45%	80%	20%	93%	7%
	32%	68%	65%	35%	86%	14%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	55%	45%
	32%	68%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	93%	7%
	86%	14%	96%	4%

1st Half

129%

X42%

229%

1st Score

147%

X6%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

2-2

19%

X-X

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

2-1

9.5%

1-0

8.8%

1-2

7.7%

0-1

7.1%

2-0

6.4%

2-2

6.3%

0-0

6.1%

0-2

4.6%

3-1

4.5%

3-0

3.8%

3-2

3.1%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Napoli vs Roma — Recent Form

Roma have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Napoli have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Roma

Napoli

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Roma

2/5

Napoli

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Roma

3/5

Napoli

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Roma

2/5

Napoli

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Roma

3/5

Napoli

4/5

First Half Result

Roma

1/5

Napoli

3/5

Correct Score

Roma

0/5

Napoli

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Roma – Cagliari prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).