Flop as favourites
4/10Juventus won only 4 of 10 as favourites (league 56%).
Lecce vs Juventus Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Unlucky
Juventus are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−8points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. Lecce are the other way round, ahead of their chances: about +6 points.
Bookmakers: Juventus 66% to winLecce 12%
Lecce vs Juventus score prediction
Serie A
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Juventus expected to score more than twice as many as Lecce
2.5 goals in total, a little under the Serie A average of 2.6.
goals expected
Lecce0.8Juventus1.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Lecce vs Juventus: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Lecce vs Juventus — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Juventus to win
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 1,799 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 2,840 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 3,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Juventus ahead at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 6,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Lecce Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lecce 0–1 goals
Our model 82%Bookmakers 83%
Our track record
In 390 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.4%).
Juventus Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Juventus 2+ goals
Our model 50%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 1,013 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Lecce vs Juventus — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Lecce vs Juventus. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Lecce–
Juventus–Winner
2 58%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
0-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Lecce–Juventus–Winner
2 58%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
0-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
117%
X25%
258%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 50% | 82% | 18% |
| 19% | 81% | 50% | 50% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
| 76% | 24% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
116%
X40%
244%
1st Score
126%
X9%
266%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
38%
X-2
20%
X-X
15%
1-1
8%
X-1
6%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
0-1
14.0%
0-2
11.7%
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
6.5%
0-3
6.4%
1-3
5.3%
2-1
4.3%
2-2
4.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Lecce vs Juventus: the stats that stand out
Serie A
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Juventus: flop as favourites
4/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Lecce vs Juventus: attack vs defence
Serie A
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie A teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Lecce: weak attack, weak defence (1.26 xG, 1.74 xGA a game)
- Juventus: good attack, good defence (1.83 xG, 0.80 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Lecce vs Juventus form and luck check
Serie A
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie A gamesLecce riding their luck, Juventus unlucky
- LecceBookmakers: 12% to win today.+5.6
- JuventusBookmakers: 66% to win today.Wasteful · −8 goals−8.3
Last 5 matches
LecceW
L
L
W
L
JuventusL
D
W
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Lecce 18th of 20 · Juventus 2nd of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Lecce vs Juventus: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie A
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie A gamesBTTS = both teams scoredJuventus games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Serie A average (50%), Lecce games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 50%
Lecce6 of 10
Juventus3 of 10
BTTSleague 48%
Lecce3 of 10
Juventus4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 381 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Lecce vs Juventus corners, cards and goal times
Serie A
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameLecce score early, Juventus late
Lecce
Juventus
4.1
Corners won · league 4.5
7.6
4.0
Corners conceded · league 4.5
3.1
2.0
Cards · league 1.9
1.3
0.8
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
2.2
62%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
33%
23%
Goals after 75' · league 22%
50%
60%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
25%
13%
Conceded after 75' · league 22%
42%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Juventus1/5
Lecce3/5
Both Teams to Score
Juventus4/5
Lecce1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Juventus1/5
Lecce2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Juventus4/5
Lecce4/5
First Half Result
Juventus3/5
Lecce0/5
Correct Score
Juventus1/5
Lecce0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction