2. Leagues
  3. Serie A
  4. Hellas Verona vs Lecce

Hellas Verona vs Lecce 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2024/2025 (Round 36)

Fair result
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona

1–1

LecceLecce
0.6Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Hellas Verona would usually take 1.0 points and Lecce 1.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Hellas Verona.

Hellas Verona 0.0 pts vs chancesLecce −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hellas Verona vs Lecce stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lecce had clearly more shots on target

Hellas Verona

Lecce

2

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

2

3

Corners

6

4

Yellow cards

0

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Hellas Verona and Lecce ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Hellas Verona win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lecce – Juventus prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Hellas Verona vs Lecce — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hellas Verona to win

Wrong
Our model 38%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,100 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 5,315 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 3,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Hellas Verona Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hellas Verona 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,679 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Lecce Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lecce 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hellas Verona vs Lecce 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hellas Verona vs Lecce. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1
LecceLecce1

Winner

12 72%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

138%
X28%
234%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%70%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Hellas Verona31%69%66%34%
Lecce34%66%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Hellas Verona87%13%96%4%
Lecce89%11%97%3%

1st Half

126%
X47%
228%

1st Score

149%
X9%
242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

2-2

20%

X-X

19%

X-1

14%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.3%

1-0

11.2%

0-1

10.2%

0-0

9.1%

2-1

8.1%

1-2

7.8%

2-0

6.7%

0-2

6.0%

2-2

4.8%

3-1

3.1%

3-0

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lecce – Juventus prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores