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Milan vs Genoa 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2025/2026 (Round 19)

Robbed

Milan drew despite more chances

MilanMilan

1–1

GenoaGenoa
2.7Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Milan would usually take 2.5 points and Genoa 0.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Milan.

Milan −1.5 pts vs chancesGenoa +0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Milan vs Genoa stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Milan had more than twice the shots on target

Milan

Genoa

8

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

2

12

Corners

1

4

Yellow cards

1

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Milan and Genoa ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Milan win at 67% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Genoa – Venezia prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Milan vs Genoa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Milan to win

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 618 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.6% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,840 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 4,559 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Milan ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,250 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Milan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Milan 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,474 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Genoa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Genoa 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 86%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 598 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Milan vs Genoa 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Milan vs Genoa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
MilanMilan1
GenoaGenoa1

Winner

1 67%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

167%
X20%
212%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Milan14%86%42%58%
Genoa55%45%86%14%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Milan70%30%88%13%
Genoa97%3%100%0%

1st Half

152%
X36%
213%

1st Score

172%
X7%
221%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

48%

X-1

21%

X-X

10%

2-2

5%

1-X

4%

X-2

4%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.1%

2-0

12.9%

2-1

10.6%

1-1

9.7%

3-0

8.5%

0-0

6.7%

3-1

6.2%

0-1

4.8%

1-2

3.6%

2-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Genoa – Venezia prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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