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Roma vs Sassuolo 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)

Fair result
RomaRoma

2–0

SassuoloSassuolo
2.5Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Roma would usually take 2.4 points and Sassuolo 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Roma.

Roma +0.6 pts vs chancesSassuolo −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Roma vs Sassuolo stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Roma had more than twice the shots on target

Roma

Sassuolo

6

Shots on target

3

5

Big chances

2

5

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

2

64%

Possession

36%

The match between Roma and Sassuolo ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Roma win with 60% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Frosinone – Sassuolo prediction & betting tips (Oct 16, 2026).

Roma vs Sassuolo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Roma to win

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 1,775 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.1% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,108 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 2,816 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 4,517 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Roma ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,182 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.

Roma Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Roma 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,784 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Sassuolo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sassuolo 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Roma vs Sassuolo 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Roma vs Sassuolo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
RomaRoma2
SassuoloSassuolo0

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

160%
X23%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Roma17%83%46%54%
Sassuolo47%53%80%20%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Roma74%26%90%10%
Sassuolo95%5%99%1%

1st Half

143%
X41%
216%

1st Score

166%
X6%
227%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

39%

X-1

19%

X-X

14%

2-2

7%

X-2

6%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

12.3%

2-0

10.9%

1-1

10.9%

2-1

10.8%

0-0

6.5%

3-0

6.4%

3-1

6.0%

0-1

5.6%

1-2

4.9%

2-2

4.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Frosinone – Sassuolo prediction & betting tips (Oct 16, 2026).

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