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Hellas Verona vs Lazio 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2025/2026 (Round 20)

Fair result
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona

0–1

LazioLazio
0.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Hellas Verona would usually take 1.2 points and Lazio 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Lazio.

Hellas Verona −1.2 pts vs chancesLazio +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hellas Verona vs Lazio stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Hellas Verona

Lazio

2

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

2

2

Corners

1

2

Yellow cards

1

36%

Possession

64%

The match between Hellas Verona and Lazio ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Lazio win with 46% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lazio – Parma prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Hellas Verona vs Lazio — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lazio to win

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,124 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 4,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Hellas Verona Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hellas Verona 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,583 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.0% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Lazio Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lazio 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 1,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hellas Verona vs Lazio 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hellas Verona vs Lazio. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona0
LazioLazio1

Winner

X2 72%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

128%
X26%
246%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%52%48%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Hellas Verona38%62%71%29%
Lazio25%75%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Hellas Verona90%10%97%3%
Lazio81%19%93%7%

1st Half

120%
X50%
230%

1st Score

138%
X8%
254%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

25%

X-X

20%

X-2

18%

1-1

13%

X-1

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

11.6%

1-1

11.4%

1-2

8.9%

0-0

8.4%

1-0

8.2%

0-2

7.9%

2-1

6.3%

2-2

5.0%

1-3

4.5%

2-0

4.3%

0-3

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lazio – Parma prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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