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Cagliari vs Hellas Verona 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2025/2026 (Round 23)

Fair result
CagliariCagliari

4–0

Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
1.5Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Cagliari would usually take 1.9 points and Hellas Verona 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cagliari.

Cagliari +1.1 pts vs chancesHellas Verona −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cagliari vs Hellas Verona stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cagliari had more than twice the shots on target

Cagliari

Hellas Verona

7

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

0

6

Corners

3

0

Yellow cards

1

0

Red cards

1

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Cagliari and Hellas Verona ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Cagliari win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cagliari – Bologna prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Cagliari vs Hellas Verona — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cagliari to win

Correct
Our model 41%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 79%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Cagliari Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cagliari 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Hellas Verona Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hellas Verona 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cagliari vs Hellas Verona 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cagliari vs Hellas Verona. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
CagliariCagliari4
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona0

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

141%
X28%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%59%41%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cagliari29%71%65%35%
Hellas Verona37%63%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cagliari86%14%96%4%
Hellas Verona91%9%98%2%

1st Half

127%
X50%
223%

1st Score

147%
X10%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

20%

1-1

19%

2-2

17%

X-1

16%

X-2

14%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.2%

1-0

12.5%

0-1

10.0%

0-0

9.8%

2-1

8.1%

2-0

7.5%

1-2

7.3%

0-2

5.3%

2-2

4.6%

3-1

3.5%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cagliari – Bologna prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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