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Fiorentina vs Parma

Fiorentina vs Parma 0-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2025/2026 (Round 28)

Fair result

Fiorentina

0–0

Parma

1.1Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Fiorentina would usually take 1.8 points and Parma 0.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Fiorentina.

Fiorentina −0.8 pts vs chancesParma +0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fiorentina vs Parma stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Fiorentina had more than twice the shots on target

Fiorentina

Parma

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Fiorentina and Parma ended 0-0. Our AI model predicted a Fiorentina win at 47% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lazio – Parma prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Fiorentina vs Parma — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fiorentina to win

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,486 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,125 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,841 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 43%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Fiorentina Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fiorentina 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Fiorentina 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Parma Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Parma 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,360 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fiorentina vs Parma 0-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fiorentina vs Parma. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Fiorentina0

Parma0

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Fiorentina0

Parma0

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

147%

X26%

227%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%	82%	18%	93%	7%
	39%	61%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%
	39%	61%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	93%	7%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

138%

X43%

220%

1st Score

159%

X8%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

18%

X-X

16%

2-2

12%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

1-0

11.9%

2-1

9.4%

0-1

8.6%

0-0

8.4%

2-0

8.3%

1-2

6.5%

0-2

4.6%

2-2

4.6%

3-1

4.3%

3-0

4.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lazio – Parma prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).