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  4. Lecce vs Cremonese

Lecce vs Cremonese 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2025/2026 (Round 28)

Fair result
LecceLecce

2–1

CremoneseCremonese
1.5Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Lecce would usually take 1.6 points and Cremonese 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lecce.

Lecce +1.4 pts vs chancesCremonese −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lecce vs Cremonese stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cremonese had clearly more shots on target

Lecce

Cremonese

3

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

2

4

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

4

0

Red cards

1

42%

Possession

58%

The match between Lecce and Cremonese ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Lecce win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lecce – Juventus prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Lecce vs Cremonese — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lecce to win

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,609 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,126 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,159 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 3,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Lecce Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lecce 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Cremonese Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cremonese 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,365 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lecce vs Cremonese 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lecce vs Cremonese. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Italy
LecceLecce2
CremoneseCremonese1

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

142%
X27%
231%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Lecce27%73%61%39%
Cremonese36%64%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Lecce84%16%95%5%
Cremonese90%10%97%3%

1st Half

130%
X46%
224%

1st Score

149%
X8%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

18%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.6%

1-0

11.5%

0-1

9.3%

2-1

8.7%

0-0

8.5%

2-0

7.5%

1-2

7.2%

2-2

5.0%

0-2

4.9%

3-1

3.9%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lecce – Juventus prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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