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Lecce vs Bologna

Lecce vs Bologna 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

Lecce

1–2

Bologna

1.7Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Lecce would usually take 1.7 points and Bologna 1.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Bologna.

Lecce −1.7 pts vs chancesBologna +2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lecce vs Bologna stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Lecce

Bologna

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Lecce and Bologna ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Bologna win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cagliari – Bologna prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Lecce vs Bologna — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bologna to win

Correct

Our model 39%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 2,098 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,453 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Lecce Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lecce 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Bologna Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bologna 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,653 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lecce vs Bologna 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lecce vs Bologna. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Lecce1

Bologna2

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Lecce1

Bologna2

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

132%

X29%

239%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	70%	56%	44%	67%	33%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	70%	56%	44%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	67%	33%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	35%	65%	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%
	30%	70%	64%	36%	86%	14%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	35%	65%	70%	30%
	30%	70%	64%	36%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	90%	10%	97%	3%
	86%	14%	96%	4%

1st Half

127%

X46%

227%

1st Score

146%

X10%

244%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

20%

X-X

19%

1-1

18%

X-2

14%

X-1

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

13.0%

0-1

10.8%

1-0

10.0%

0-0

9.7%

1-2

8.5%

2-1

7.4%

0-2

7.0%

2-0

5.6%

2-2

5.2%

1-3

3.4%

0-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Lecce vs Bologna — Recent Form

Lecce have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table. Bologna have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Lecce

Bologna

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Lecce

3/5

Bologna

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Lecce

1/5

Bologna

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Lecce

2/5

Bologna

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Lecce

4/5

Bologna

3/5

First Half Result

Lecce

0/5

Bologna

2/5

Correct Score

Lecce

0/5

Bologna

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Cagliari – Bologna prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).