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Lazio vs Monza

Lazio vs Monza 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

Lazio

3–1

Monza

2.0Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Lazio would usually take 1.6 points and Monza 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lazio.

Lazio +1.4 pts vs chancesMonza −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lazio vs Monza stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Lazio

Monza

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

67%

Possession

34%

The match between Lazio and Monza ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Lazio win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sassuolo – Lazio prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Lazio vs Monza — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lazio to win

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,744 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,206 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,992 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Lazio ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,248 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Lazio Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lazio 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Lazio 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,030 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.

Monza Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monza 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,316 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lazio vs Monza 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lazio vs Monza. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Lazio3

Monza1

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

· FT

Serie A - Italy

Lazio3

Monza1

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

142%

X26%

232%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%	59%	41%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	59%	41%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	58%	42%	82%	18%	94%	6%
	33%	67%	65%	35%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	58%	42%
	33%	67%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	82%	18%	94%	6%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

131%

X43%

225%

1st Score

150%

X7%

242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

18%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.7%

1-0

9.5%

2-1

8.9%

0-1

7.6%

1-2

7.4%

0-0

7.1%

2-0

6.7%

2-2

6.2%

0-2

4.7%

3-1

4.4%

3-0

3.3%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Lazio vs Monza — Recent Form

Lazio have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Monza have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Lazio

Monza

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Lazio

2/5

Monza

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Lazio

3/5

Monza

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Lazio

2/5

Monza

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Lazio

3/5

Monza

1/5

First Half Result

Lazio

1/5

Monza

1/5

Correct Score

Lazio

0/5

Monza

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sassuolo – Lazio prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).