Home
Leagues
Serie B
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 31)

Smash-and-grab

Vila Nova won with less than half the chances

Botafogo SP

0–1

Vila Nova

1.5Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Botafogo SP would usually take 2.1 points and Vila Nova 0.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Botafogo SP.

Botafogo SP −2.1 pts vs chancesVila Nova +2.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Level on shots on target

Botafogo SP

Vila Nova

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

60%

Possession

40%

The match between Botafogo SP and Vila Nova ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Botafogo SP win at 49% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Operário PR – Botafogo SP prediction & betting tips (Oct 7, 2026).

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo SP to win

Wrong

Our model 49%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,314 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,140 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 49%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Botafogo SP Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo SP 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,339 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Vila Nova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vila Nova 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,530 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Brazil

Botafogo SP0

Vila Nova1

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

· FT

Serie B - Brazil

Botafogo SP0

Vila Nova1

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

149%

X27%

224%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	59%	41%	69%	31%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	59%	41%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	69%	31%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	59%	41%	84%	16%	95%	5%
	42%	58%	78%	22%	94%	6%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	59%	41%
	42%	58%	78%	22%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	95%	5%
	94%	6%	99%	1%

1st Half

133%

X48%

219%

1st Score

156%

X10%

234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

19%

X-1

17%

2-2

12%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

13.3%

1-0

13.3%

2-1

9.7%

2-0

9.7%

0-0

9.6%

0-1

8.7%

1-2

6.1%

3-1

4.3%

3-0

4.1%

2-2

4.1%

0-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova — Recent Form

Vila Nova have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Botafogo SP have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Vila Nova

Botafogo SP

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Botafogo SP

2/5

Vila Nova

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Botafogo SP

3/5

Vila Nova

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Botafogo SP

2/5

Vila Nova

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Botafogo SP

3/5

Vila Nova

5/5

First Half Result

Botafogo SP

4/5

Vila Nova

2/5

Correct Score

Botafogo SP

2/5

Vila Nova

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Operário PR – Botafogo SP prediction & betting tips (Oct 7, 2026).