Brick wall
8/10Vila Nova kept 8 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 30%).
Vila Nova vs Cuiabá Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 32)
Riding their luck
Vila Nova are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+7points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games. Cuiabá are also ahead of their chances: about +5 points.
Bookmakers: Vila Nova 45% to winCuiabá 24%
Vila Nova vs Cuiabá score prediction
Serie B
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Bore draw alertJust 2.0 goals expected
2.0 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the Serie B average is 2.3).
goals expected
Vila Nova1.1
Cuiabá0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Vila Nova vs Cuiabá: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Vila Nova vs Cuiabá — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Vila Nova to win
Our model 56%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 1,737 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 6,314 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 5,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 83%
Our track record
In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 47%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 4,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Vila Nova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Vila Nova 0–1 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Cuiabá Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cuiabá 0–1 goals
Our model 81%Bookmakers 79%
Our track record
In 1,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Vila Nova vs Cuiabá — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Vila Nova vs Cuiabá. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Vila Nova–
Cuiabá–Winner
1 56%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Vila Nova–Cuiabá–Winner
1 56%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Full Time
156%
X26%
218%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 66% | 34% | 87% | 13% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 52% | 48% |
| 47% | 53% | 81% | 19% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
136%
X47%
216%
1st Score
159%
X9%
232%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
32%
X-1
22%
X-X
17%
2-2
9%
X-2
7%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
14.3%
1-1
12.2%
2-1
10.4%
2-0
10.4%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.8%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
4.9%
1-2
4.5%
2-2
4.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Vila Nova vs Cuiabá: the stats that stand out
Serie B
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Vila Nova: brick wall, hard to break and banker as favourites
8/10Hard to break
1/10Vila Nova conceded first in only 1 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Banker as favourites
5/6Vila Nova won 5 of 6 as favourites (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Vila Nova vs Cuiabá: attack vs defence
Serie B
How to read it
other Serie B teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Vila Nova: weak attack, good defence (1.46 xG, 1.17 xGA a game)
- Cuiabá: weak attack, good defence (1.50 xG, 1.27 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Vila Nova vs Cuiabá form and luck check
Serie B
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie B gamesBoth sides are winning more than their chances suggest
- Vila NovaBookmakers: 45% to win today.Clinical · +5 goals+7.2
- CuiabáBookmakers: 24% to win today.Clinical · +4 goals+4.5
Last 5 matches
Vila NovaW
W
W
D
W
CuiabáW
L
W
D
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Vila Nova 8th of 20 · Cuiabá 7th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Vila Nova vs Cuiabá: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie B
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie B gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Vila Nova and Cuiabá games less often than the Serie B average (49%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 44%
Vila Nova2 of 10
Cuiabá5 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
Vila Nova1 of 10
Cuiabá4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 393 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Vila Nova vs Cuiabá corners, cards and goal times
Serie B
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Serie B average
Vila Nova
Cuiabá
4.7
Corners won · league 5.2
5.4
6.8
Corners conceded · league 5.2
4.8
2.1
Cards · league 2.5
2.0
2.5
Opponents' cards · league 2.5
1.6
53%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
31%
12%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
13%
67%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
44%
17%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
11%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Cuiabá4/5
Vila Nova3/5
Both Teams to Score
Cuiabá4/5
Vila Nova3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Cuiabá1/5
Vila Nova4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Cuiabá5/5
Vila Nova5/5
First Half Result
Cuiabá2/5
Vila Nova2/5
Correct Score
Cuiabá0/5
Vila Nova2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction