Always chasing
8/10América Mineiro conceded first in 8 of their last 10 (league 46%).
América Mineiro vs Fortaleza Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 32)
Unlucky
América Mineiro are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: América Mineiro 22% to winFortaleza 50%
América Mineiro vs Fortaleza score prediction
Serie B
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.3 goals in total, in line with the Serie B average of 2.3.
goals expected
América Mineiro1.0
Fortaleza1.2Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for América Mineiro vs Fortaleza: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
América Mineiro vs Fortaleza — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Fortaleza to win
Our model 39%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 2,040 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.4% of the time (bookmakers said 43.8%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 3,039 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 5,140 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 79%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 48%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 4,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
América Mineiro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
América Mineiro 0–1 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 1,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.2% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).
Fortaleza Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Fortaleza 0–1 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 3,159 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
América Mineiro vs Fortaleza — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for América Mineiro vs Fortaleza. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
América Mineiro–
Fortaleza–Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
América Mineiro–Fortaleza–Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
132%
X29%
239%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 71% | 29% |
| 30% | 70% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
| 88% | 12% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
126%
X48%
226%
1st Score
149%
X10%
241%
Half Time/Full Time
X-X
20%
2-2
19%
1-1
18%
X-2
15%
X-1
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.9%
0-1
11.9%
1-0
10.1%
0-0
9.9%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
5.3%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
América Mineiro vs Fortaleza: the stats that stand out
Serie B
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%América Mineiro: always chasing and shot-shy · Fortaleza: flop as favourites
8/10Shot-shy
6/10América Mineiro failed to score in 6 of their last 10 (league 30%).
Flop as favourites
1/6Fortaleza won only 1 of 6 as favourites (league 46%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →América Mineiro vs Fortaleza: attack vs defence
Serie B
How to read it
other Serie B teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- América Mineiro: good attack, weak defence (1.68 xG, 1.87 xGA a game)
- Fortaleza: good attack, good defence (1.52 xG, 1.24 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →América Mineiro vs Fortaleza form and luck check
Serie B
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie B gamesAmérica Mineiro are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- América MineiroBookmakers: 22% to win today.Wasteful · −8 goals−5.3
- FortalezaBookmakers: 50% to win today.+2.2
Last 5 matches
FortalezaD
D
W
D
W
América MineiroL
L
L
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: América Mineiro 19th of 20 · Fortaleza 5th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →América Mineiro vs Fortaleza: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie B
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie B gamesBTTS = both teams scoredFortaleza games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Serie B average (44%), América Mineiro games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 44%
América Mineiro5 of 10
Fortaleza2 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
América Mineiro3 of 10
Fortaleza6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 390 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →América Mineiro vs Fortaleza corners, cards and goal times
Serie B
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameFortaleza score early
América Mineiro
Fortaleza
5.7
Corners won · league 5.2
5.0
6.4
Corners conceded · league 5.2
4.6
1.4
Cards · league 2.4
1.2
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 2.4
2.0
33%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
67%
33%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
17%
37%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
57%
32%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
14%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Fortaleza1/5
América Mineiro3/5
Both Teams to Score
Fortaleza2/5
América Mineiro4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Fortaleza3/5
América Mineiro3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Fortaleza4/5
América Mineiro5/5
First Half Result
Fortaleza3/5
América Mineiro3/5
Correct Score
Fortaleza2/5
América Mineiro1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction