Juventude vs Náutico 4-0 Score & Prediction Review
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 35)
Juventude4–0
NáuticoOn these chances Juventude would usually take 2.0 points and Náutico 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Juventude.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Juventude vs Náutico stats: how the match was played
Serie B
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Juventude had more than twice the shots on target
Juventude
Náutico
11
Shots on target
4
5
Big chances
3
4
Corners
3
2
Yellow cards
4
51%
Possession
49%
Juventude vs Náutico — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Juventude to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,466 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.
Our track record
In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Juventude ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,263 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Juventude 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Juventude 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Náutico 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Juventude vs Náutico 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Juventude vs Náutico. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Juventude4
Náutico0Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Juventude4Náutico0Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 53% | 47% |
| 38% | 62% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
X-1
18%
X-X
16%
2-2
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.4%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
11.1%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
3-1
5.0%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Juventude vs Náutico — Recent Form
Juventude have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Náutico have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.
Last 5 matches
JuventudeNáuticoOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
JuventudeNáuticoBoth Teams to Score
JuventudeNáuticoOver/Under 2.5 Goals
JuventudeNáuticoOver/Under 3.5 Goals
JuventudeNáuticoFirst Half Result
JuventudeNáuticoCorrect Score
JuventudeNáutico