Sport Recife vs Criciúma 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 35)
Sport Recife2–1
CriciúmaOn these chances Sport Recife would usually take 1.5 points and Criciúma 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Criciúma.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Sport Recife vs Criciúma stats: how the match was played
Serie B
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Sport Recife had more than twice the shots on target
Sport Recife
Criciúma
8
Shots on target
4
1
Big chances
1
0
Corners
8
0
Yellow cards
3
48%
Possession
52%
Sport Recife vs Criciúma — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Sport Recife to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Criciúma to win.
Our track record
In 1,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,147 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Sport Recife 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
Criciúma 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,288 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Sport Recife vs Criciúma 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sport Recife vs Criciúma. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Sport Recife2
Criciúma1Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Sport Recife2Criciúma1Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 61% | 39% |
| 32% | 68% | 67% | 33% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
| 88% | 12% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
X-X
19%
2-2
17%
X-1
15%
X-2
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
7.9%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Sport Recife vs Criciúma — Recent Form
Sport Recife have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Criciúma have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Sport RecifeCriciúmaOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Sport RecifeCriciúmaBoth Teams to Score
Sport RecifeCriciúmaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Sport RecifeCriciúmaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Sport RecifeCriciúmaFirst Half Result
Sport RecifeCriciúmaCorrect Score
Sport RecifeCriciúma