São Bernardo vs Vila Nova 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 35)
São Bernardo3–2
Vila NovaOn these chances São Bernardo would usually take 1.6 points and Vila Nova 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Vila Nova.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →São Bernardo vs Vila Nova stats: how the match was played
Serie B
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
São Bernardo had clearly more shots on target
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
7
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
2
8
Corners
3
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
64%
Possession
36%
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
São Bernardo to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Vila Nova to win.
Our track record
In 1,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,639 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
São Bernardo 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,666 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Vila Nova 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,288 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
São Bernardo3
Vila Nova2Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
São Bernardo3Vila Nova2Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 57% | 43% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 67% | 33% |
| 32% | 68% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 12% | 97% | 3% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
X-X
20%
1-1
18%
2-2
18%
X-2
15%
X-1
13%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.7%
0-1
11.1%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
9.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.9%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
São Bernardo vs Vila Nova — Recent Form
Vila Nova have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. São Bernardo have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Vila NovaSão BernardoOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Vila NovaSão BernardoBoth Teams to Score
Vila NovaSão BernardoOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Vila NovaSão BernardoOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Vila NovaSão BernardoFirst Half Result
Vila NovaSão BernardoCorrect Score
Vila NovaSão Bernardo