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Athletic Club vs Sport Recife

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026 (Round 31)

Smash-and-grab

Sport Recife won with less than half the chances

Athletic Club

1–2

Sport Recife

2.9Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Athletic Club would usually take 2.3 points and Sport Recife 0.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Athletic Club.

Athletic Club −2.3 pts vs chancesSport Recife +2.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Athletic Club had clearly more shots on target

Athletic Club

Sport Recife

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Athletic Club and Sport Recife ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Athletic Club win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético GO – Sport Recife prediction & betting tips (Oct 11, 2026).

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Athletic Club to win

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,039 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Athletic Club Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Athletic Club 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Sport Recife Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sport Recife 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 69%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,159 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Athletic Club vs Sport Recife. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Brazil

Athletic Club1

Sport Recife2

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Serie B - Brazil

Athletic Club1

Sport Recife2

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

141%

X27%

232%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%	66%	34%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	53%	47%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%	86%	14%	96%	4%
	34%	66%	69%	31%	89%	11%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%
	34%	66%	69%	31%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	86%	14%	96%	4%
	89%	11%	97%	3%

1st Half

129%

X48%

223%

1st Score

151%

X8%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

19%

X-1

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

1-0

11.3%

2-1

9.4%

0-1

8.9%

0-0

8.3%

1-2

7.9%

2-0

7.0%

2-2

5.1%

0-2

5.1%

3-1

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Athletic Club vs Sport Recife — Recent Form

Sport Recife have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Athletic Club have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Sport Recife

Athletic Club

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Sport Recife

4/5

Athletic Club

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Sport Recife

4/5

Athletic Club

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Sport Recife

2/5

Athletic Club

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Sport Recife

4/5

Athletic Club

4/5

First Half Result

Sport Recife

1/5

Athletic Club

4/5

Correct Score

Sport Recife

0/5

Athletic Club

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético GO – Sport Recife prediction & betting tips (Oct 11, 2026).