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Carrarese vs Arezzo

Carrarese vs Arezzo 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)

Fair result

Carrarese

2–1

Arezzo

2.0Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Carrarese would usually take 2.0 points and Arezzo 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Carrarese.

Carrarese +1.0 pts vs chancesArezzo −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Carrarese vs Arezzo stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Carrarese had clearly more shots on target

Carrarese

Arezzo

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Carrarese and Arezzo ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Carrarese win with 38% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Arezzo – Ascoli prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Carrarese vs Arezzo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Carrarese to win

Correct

Our model 38%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 2,099 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.8% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,749 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,885 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,997 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 4,288 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Carrarese Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Carrarese 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,473 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Arezzo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arezzo 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,677 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Carrarese vs Arezzo 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Carrarese vs Arezzo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Carrarese2

Arezzo1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Carrarese2

Arezzo1

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

138%

X26%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%	59%	42%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	59%	42%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	61%	39%	84%	16%	95%	5%
	29%	71%	62%	38%	84%	16%	94%	6%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	61%	39%
	29%	71%	62%	38%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	95%	5%
	84%	16%	94%	6%

1st Half

127%

X49%

224%

1st Score

151%

X7%

242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

X-X

19%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

14%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-0

8.7%

2-1

8.6%

0-1

8.3%

1-2

8.1%

0-0

7.0%

2-2

5.8%

2-0

5.7%

0-2

5.2%

3-1

3.7%

1-3

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Carrarese vs Arezzo — Recent Form

Carrarese have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table. Arezzo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Carrarese

Arezzo

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Arezzo

1/5

Carrarese

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Arezzo

2/5

Carrarese

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arezzo

3/5

Carrarese

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Arezzo

4/5

Carrarese

5/5

First Half Result

Arezzo

4/5

Carrarese

2/5

Correct Score

Arezzo

0/5

Carrarese

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Arezzo – Ascoli prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).