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Mantova vs Palermo 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 19)

Robbed

Palermo drew despite more chances

MantovaMantova

1–1

PalermoPalermo
0.6Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Mantova would usually take 0.5 points and Palermo 2.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Palermo.

Mantova +0.5 pts vs chancesPalermo −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Mantova vs Palermo stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Palermo had more than twice the shots on target

Mantova

Palermo

2

Shots on target

6

0

Big chances

3

3

Corners

6

3

Yellow cards

2

65%

Possession

35%

The match between Mantova and Palermo ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Palermo win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Virtus Entella – Mantova prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Mantova vs Palermo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palermo to win

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,655 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Mantova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mantova 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 1,583 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.0% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Palermo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palermo 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Mantova vs Palermo 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Mantova vs Palermo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
MantovaMantova1
PalermoPalermo1

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

130%
X27%
243%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Mantova35%65%70%30%
Palermo26%74%61%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Mantova90%10%97%3%
Palermo84%16%95%5%

1st Half

124%
X46%
230%

1st Score

137%
X8%
255%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

22%

X-X

18%

1-1

16%

X-2

16%

X-1

12%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

0-1

11.7%

1-2

9.1%

1-0

8.8%

0-0

8.0%

0-2

7.3%

2-1

7.1%

2-2

5.4%

2-0

5.1%

1-3

4.1%

0-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Virtus Entella – Mantova prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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