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Carrarese vs Empoli 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 21)

Fair result
CarrareseCarrarese

3–0

EmpoliEmpoli
1.3Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Carrarese would usually take 1.5 points and Empoli 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Carrarese.

Carrarese +1.5 pts vs chancesEmpoli −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Carrarese vs Empoli stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Carrarese had clearly more shots on target

Carrarese

Empoli

6

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

1

2

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

1

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Carrarese and Empoli ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Carrarese win with 45% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Palermo – Carrarese prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Carrarese vs Empoli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Carrarese to win

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,517 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 50%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,199 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 4,586 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 47%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Carrarese Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Carrarese 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Empoli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Empoli 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,309 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Carrarese vs Empoli 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Carrarese vs Empoli. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
CarrareseCarrarese3
EmpoliEmpoli0

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

145%
X26%
228%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%50%50%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Carrarese24%76%57%43%
Empoli37%63%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Carrarese81%19%93%7%
Empoli89%11%96%4%

1st Half

133%
X47%
220%

1st Score

154%
X8%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-1

19%

X-X

18%

2-2

13%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

1-0

11.3%

2-1

9.0%

0-1

7.6%

0-0

7.5%

2-0

7.4%

1-2

6.6%

2-2

5.2%

3-1

4.4%

0-2

4.2%

3-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Palermo – Carrarese prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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