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Venezia vs Carrarese 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 22)

Fair result
VeneziaVenezia

2–1

CarrareseCarrarese
1.9Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Venezia would usually take 2.2 points and Carrarese 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Venezia.

Venezia +0.8 pts vs chancesCarrarese −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Venezia vs Carrarese stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Venezia had clearly more shots on target

Venezia

Carrarese

5

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

1

3

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

4

70%

Possession

30%

The match between Venezia and Carrarese ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Venezia win with 62% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Palermo – Carrarese prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Venezia vs Carrarese — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia to win

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 1,073 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,524 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,206 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 4,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Venezia ahead at half-time.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 550 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.

Venezia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Venezia 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Carrarese Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Carrarese 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.1% of the time (bookmakers said 80.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Venezia vs Carrarese 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Venezia vs Carrarese. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
VeneziaVenezia2
CarrareseCarrarese1

Winner

1 62%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

162%
X23%
215%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT62%38%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Venezia15%85%45%55%
Carrarese50%50%82%18%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Venezia72%28%89%11%
Carrarese96%4%99%1%

1st Half

139%
X46%
215%

1st Score

163%
X7%
230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

23%

X-X

14%

2-2

7%

X-2

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-X

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

13.1%

2-0

11.1%

1-1

10.8%

2-1

10.8%

3-0

7.5%

0-0

6.7%

3-1

6.0%

0-1

4.9%

1-2

4.4%

2-2

4.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Palermo – Carrarese prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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