2. Leagues
  3. Serie B
  4. Südtirol vs Catanzaro

Südtirol vs Catanzaro 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 22)

Smash-and-grab

Südtirol won with less than half the chances

SüdtirolSüdtirol

2–1

CatanzaroCatanzaro
0.8Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Südtirol would usually take 0.6 points and Catanzaro 2.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Südtirol.

Südtirol +2.4 pts vs chancesCatanzaro −2.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Südtirol vs Catanzaro stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Catanzaro had clearly more shots on target

Südtirol

Catanzaro

4

Shots on target

7

1

Big chances

2

2

Corners

3

4

Yellow cards

1

34%

Possession

66%

The match between Südtirol and Catanzaro ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Südtirol win with 42% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Südtirol – Sampdoria prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Südtirol vs Catanzaro — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Südtirol to win

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 3,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,122 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,654 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,243 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Südtirol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Südtirol 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Catanzaro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Catanzaro 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,356 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Südtirol vs Catanzaro 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Südtirol vs Catanzaro. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
SüdtirolSüdtirol2
CatanzaroCatanzaro1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

142%
X28%
230%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Südtirol28%72%63%37%
Catanzaro36%64%72%28%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Südtirol86%14%96%4%
Catanzaro91%9%98%2%

1st Half

134%
X46%
221%

1st Score

153%
X9%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

18%

X-1

16%

2-2

13%

X-2

11%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

13.1%

1-0

12.2%

0-1

10.0%

0-0

9.2%

2-1

9.0%

2-0

7.4%

1-2

7.1%

0-2

5.3%

2-2

4.7%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Südtirol – Sampdoria prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores