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Spezia vs Monza

Spezia vs Monza 4-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 29)

Fair result

Spezia

4–2

Monza

1.8Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Spezia would usually take 2.0 points and Monza 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Monza.

Spezia +1.0 pts vs chancesMonza −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Spezia vs Monza stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Spezia

Monza

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Spezia and Monza ended 4-2. Our AI model predicted an Monza win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

Spezia vs Monza — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monza to win

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Spezia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spezia 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Monza Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Monza 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Spezia vs Monza 4-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Spezia vs Monza. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Spezia4

Monza2

Winner

X2 73%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Spezia4

Monza2

Winner

X2 73%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

127%

X27%

246%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	30%	70%	56%	44%	67%	33%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	30%	70%	56%	44%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	67%	33%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	39%	61%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%
	26%	74%	60%	40%	83%	17%	94%	6%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	39%	61%	74%	26%
	26%	74%	60%	40%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	92%	8%	98%	2%
	83%	17%	94%	6%

1st Half

126%

X45%

229%

1st Score

141%

X9%

250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

23%

X-X

18%

1-1

16%

X-2

15%

X-1

12%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.7%

0-1

12.1%

1-2

9.2%

0-0

9.0%

1-0

8.9%

0-2

8.3%

2-1

6.6%

2-2

4.7%

2-0

4.5%

1-3

4.1%

0-3

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score