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Avellino vs Calcio Padova 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 29)

Fair result
AvellinoAvellino

1–0

Calcio PadovaCalcio Padova
1.8Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Avellino would usually take 2.2 points and Calcio Padova 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Avellino.

Avellino +0.9 pts vs chancesCalcio Padova −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Avellino vs Calcio Padova stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Avellino had more than twice the shots on target

Avellino

Calcio Padova

5

Shots on target

1

2

Big chances

2

9

Corners

3

3

Yellow cards

3

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Avellino and Calcio Padova ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Avellino win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Avellino – Calcio Padova prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Avellino vs Calcio Padova — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Avellino to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,099 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,122 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,654 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 46%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,243 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Avellino Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Avellino 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Calcio Padova Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Calcio Padova 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,274 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Avellino vs Calcio Padova 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Avellino vs Calcio Padova. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
AvellinoAvellino1
Calcio PadovaCalcio Padova0

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

140%
X28%
233%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%87%13%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Avellino29%71%63%37%
Calcio Padova34%66%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Avellino85%15%95%5%
Calcio Padova89%11%97%3%

1st Half

130%
X46%
224%

1st Score

150%
X9%
242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

X-X

20%

2-2

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

13%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

1-0

10.6%

0-1

9.5%

2-1

8.7%

0-0

8.6%

1-2

7.8%

2-0

6.8%

0-2

5.2%

2-2

5.2%

3-1

3.6%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Avellino – Calcio Padova prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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