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Cesena vs Frosinone 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2025/2026 (Round 30)

Fair result
CesenaCesena

2–2

FrosinoneFrosinone
2.3Chances (xG)2.2

On these chances Cesena would usually take 1.5 points and Frosinone 1.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Frosinone.

Cesena −0.5 pts vs chancesFrosinone −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cesena vs Frosinone stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Cesena

Frosinone

6

Shots on target

7

7

Big chances

2

1

Corners

5

4

Yellow cards

1

49%

Possession

51%

The match between Cesena and Frosinone ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Frosinone win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Modena – Cesena prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Cesena vs Frosinone — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Frosinone to win

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 3,598 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Cesena Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cesena 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,582 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.9% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Frosinone Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Frosinone 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cesena vs Frosinone 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cesena vs Frosinone. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie B - Italy
CesenaCesena2
FrosinoneFrosinone2

Winner

X2 72%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

128%
X27%
244%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cesena38%62%73%27%
Frosinone26%74%60%40%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cesena91%9%98%2%
Frosinone84%16%95%5%

1st Half

126%
X43%
231%

1st Score

140%
X9%
251%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

17%

X-X

17%

X-2

15%

X-1

12%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.7%

0-1

11.9%

1-2

9.3%

1-0

8.9%

0-0

8.8%

0-2

8.1%

2-1

7.0%

2-2

4.9%

2-0

4.6%

0-3

4.0%

1-3

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Modena – Cesena prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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