Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
Super Lig - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)
Fenerbahçe3–2
SamsunsporOn these chances Fenerbahçe would usually take 1.5 points and Samsunspor 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Fenerbahçe.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor stats: how the match was played
Super Lig
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor
5
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
2
7
Corners
6
2
Yellow cards
7
55%
Possession
45%
Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Super Lig
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.
Our track record
In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Fenerbahçe ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,229 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Fenerbahçe 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,018 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.9% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Samsunspor 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Fenerbahçe3
Samsunspor2Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Fenerbahçe3Samsunspor2Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24% | 76% | 57% | 43% |
| 38% | 62% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
16%
X-X
15%
2-2
14%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.3%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
5.0%
0-2
4.4%
3-1
4.4%
3-0
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score