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Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento

Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 14)

Fair result

Gimnasia La Plata

2–0

Sarmiento

1.1Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Gimnasia La Plata would usually take 1.3 points and Sarmiento 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Gimnasia La Plata.

Gimnasia La Plata +1.7 pts vs chancesSarmiento −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Gimnasia La Plata had clearly more shots on target

Gimnasia La Plata

Sarmiento

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Gimnasia La Plata and Sarmiento ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Gimnasia La Plata win with 54% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Gimnasia La Plata – Belgrano prediction & betting tips (Nov 8, 2026).

Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gimnasia La Plata to win

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.5% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,472 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,860 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 4,556 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Gimnasia La Plata ahead at half-time.

Our model 49%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 545 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 34.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Gimnasia La Plata Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gimnasia La Plata 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Gimnasia La Plata 2+ goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,873 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sarmiento 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,560 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.6% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Gimnasia La Plata2

Sarmiento0

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Gimnasia La Plata2

Sarmiento0

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

154%

X24%

221%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	64%	36%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	52%	48%	78%	22%	92%	8%
	43%	57%	77%	23%	94%	6%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	52%	48%
	43%	57%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	78%	22%	92%	8%
	94%	6%	98%	2%

1st Half

136%

X49%

215%

1st Score

162%

X7%

230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-1

22%

X-X

18%

X-2

2-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

12.9%

1-1

11.9%

2-1

10.3%

2-0

9.6%

0-0

7.3%

0-1

6.8%

1-2

5.7%

3-0

5.3%

3-1

5.2%

2-2

4.5%

0-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Gimnasia La Plata vs Sarmiento — Recent Form

Gimnasia La Plata have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Sarmiento have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Gimnasia La Plata

Sarmiento

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Gimnasia La Plata

2/5

Sarmiento

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Gimnasia La Plata

2/5

Sarmiento

0/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Gimnasia La Plata

3/5

Sarmiento

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Gimnasia La Plata

5/5

Sarmiento

4/5

First Half Result

Gimnasia La Plata

1/5

Sarmiento

2/5

Correct Score

Gimnasia La Plata

2/5

Sarmiento

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Gimnasia La Plata – Belgrano prediction & betting tips (Nov 8, 2026).