Tigre vs Sarmiento 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 16)

Fair result

Tigre

1–0

Sarmiento

1.2Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Tigre would usually take 1.5 points and Sarmiento 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Tigre.

Tigre +1.5 pts vs chancesSarmiento −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Tigre vs Sarmiento stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Tigre

Sarmiento

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Tigre and Sarmiento ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Tigre win with 50% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Tigre vs Sarmiento — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigre to win

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,539 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.8% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,475 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,285 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Tigre Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigre 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sarmiento 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,570 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.5% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Tigre vs Sarmiento 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Tigre vs Sarmiento. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Tigre1

Sarmiento0

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Tigre1

Sarmiento0

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

150%

X26%

224%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	69%	57%	43%	68%	32%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	69%	57%	43%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	58%	42%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	43%	57%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	58%	42%
	43%	57%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

134%

X49%

217%

1st Score

158%

X9%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-1

20%

X-X

18%

2-2

11%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

13.8%

1-1

12.2%

2-0

9.6%

2-1

9.6%

0-0

9.0%

0-1

8.3%

1-2

5.9%

3-0

4.3%

2-2

4.2%

3-1

4.2%

0-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Tigre vs Sarmiento — Recent Form

Tigre have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Sarmiento have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Tigre

Sarmiento

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Sarmiento

3/5

Tigre

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Sarmiento

1/5

Tigre

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Sarmiento

4/5

Tigre

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Sarmiento

5/5

Tigre

4/5

First Half Result

Sarmiento

2/5

Tigre

4/5

Correct Score

Sarmiento

1/5

Tigre

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction