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  4. San Lorenzo vs Lanús

San Lorenzo vs Lanús 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 1)

Fair result
San LorenzoSan Lorenzo

2–3

LanúsLanús
2.1Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances San Lorenzo would usually take 1.7 points and Lanús 1.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: a draw.

San Lorenzo −1.7 pts vs chancesLanús +1.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

San Lorenzo vs Lanús stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lanús had clearly more shots on target

San Lorenzo

Lanús

4

Shots on target

6

1

Big chances

4

6

Corners

8

1

Yellow cards

4

58%

Possession

42%

The match between San Lorenzo and Lanús ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a San Lorenzo win at 41% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Banfield – Lanús prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

San Lorenzo vs Lanús — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

San Lorenzo to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,057 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 73%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 288 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 89%Bookmakers 91%

Our track record

In 398 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.9% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 53.9% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

San Lorenzo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

San Lorenzo 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 72%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Lanús Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lanús 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 82%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

San Lorenzo vs Lanús 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for San Lorenzo vs Lanús. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
San LorenzoSan Lorenzo2
LanúsLanús3

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

No 64%

Correct Score

1-0 17%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 73%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 79%

Full Time

141%
X33%
227%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT45%55%73%27%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT79%21%95%5%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
San Lorenzo35%65%72%28%
Lanús47%53%82%18%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
San Lorenzo92%8%98%2%
Lanús96%4%99%1%

1st Half

124%
X54%
222%

1st Score

143%
X16%
241%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

25%

1-1

19%

X-1

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

1%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

1-0

16.8%

0-0

16.1%

1-1

13.8%

0-1

12.4%

2-0

8.8%

2-1

6.8%

1-2

5.2%

0-2

4.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Banfield – Lanús prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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