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Unión Santa Fe vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Unión Santa Fe vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 3)

Fair result

Unión Santa Fe

4–0

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

2.5Chances (xG)0.3

On these chances Unión Santa Fe would usually take 2.7 points and Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 0.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Unión Santa Fe.

Unión Santa Fe +0.3 pts vs chancesGimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza −0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Unión Santa Fe vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Unión Santa Fe had more than twice the shots on target

Unión Santa Fe

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Unión Santa Fe and Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Unión Santa Fe win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza – Platense prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Unión Santa Fe vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Unión Santa Fe to win

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,448 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,158 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 85%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 1,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,243 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Unión Santa Fe Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Unión Santa Fe 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 2,574 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Unión Santa Fe vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Unión Santa Fe vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Unión Santa Fe4

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza0

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 75%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Unión Santa Fe4

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza0

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 75%

Full Time

141%

X31%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	40%	60%	67%	33%	75%	25%	93%	7%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	40%	60%	67%	33%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	75%	25%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	33%	67%	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%
	43%	57%	78%	22%	94%	6%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	33%	67%	70%	30%
	43%	57%	78%	22%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	90%	10%	97%	3%
	94%	6%	98%	2%

1st Half

131%

X50%

219%

1st Score

154%

X14%

232%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

25%

1-1

24%

X-1

17%

2-2

12%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

15.4%

1-1

13.8%

0-0

13.6%

0-1

11.2%

2-0

8.6%

2-1

7.3%

1-2

5.8%

0-2

4.9%

2-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza – Platense prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).