2. Leagues
  3. Liga Profesional de Fútbol
  4. Unión Santa Fe vs Sarmiento

Unión Santa Fe vs Sarmiento 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 7)

Fair result
Unión Santa FeUnión Santa Fe

4–1

SarmientoSarmiento
1.2Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Unión Santa Fe would usually take 1.3 points and Sarmiento 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Unión Santa Fe.

Unión Santa Fe +1.7 pts vs chancesSarmiento −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Unión Santa Fe vs Sarmiento stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Unión Santa Fe

Sarmiento

5

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

1

2

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

2

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Unión Santa Fe and Sarmiento ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Unión Santa Fe win with 57% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sarmiento – Barracas Central prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Unión Santa Fe vs Sarmiento — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Unión Santa Fe to win

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,800 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,328 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 79%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Unión Santa Fe Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Unión Santa Fe 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sarmiento 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Unión Santa Fe vs Sarmiento 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Unión Santa Fe vs Sarmiento. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Unión Santa FeUnión Santa Fe4
SarmientoSarmiento1

Winner

1 57%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

157%
X25%
219%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT31%69%57%43%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Unión Santa Fe20%80%54%46%
Sarmiento49%51%82%18%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Unión Santa Fe80%20%93%7%
Sarmiento96%4%99%1%

1st Half

138%
X48%
213%

1st Score

165%
X9%
226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

34%

X-1

23%

X-X

18%

X-2

7%

2-2

7%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

15.6%

1-1

11.6%

2-0

11.5%

2-1

10.1%

0-0

8.9%

0-1

6.9%

3-0

5.7%

1-2

4.8%

3-1

4.8%

2-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sarmiento – Barracas Central prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores