Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo 3-0 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 11)
Defensa y Justicia3–0
San LorenzoOn these chances Defensa y Justicia would usually take 1.4 points and San Lorenzo 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Defensa y Justicia.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo stats: how the match was played
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Level on shots on target
Defensa y Justicia
San Lorenzo
4
Shots on target
5
3
Big chances
0
3
Corners
8
2
Yellow cards
3
53%
Possession
47%
Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Defensa y Justicia to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,367 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectOur track record
In 5,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,007 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,739 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Defensa y Justicia 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
San Lorenzo 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.6% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Defensa y Justicia3
San Lorenzo0Winner
1X 77%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 74%
Defensa y Justicia3San Lorenzo0Winner
1X 77%
BTTS*
No 59%
Correct Score
1-0 16%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 74%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 38% | 62% | 65% | 35% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 74% | 26% | 92% | 8% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 64% | 36% |
| 47% | 53% | 81% | 19% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
X-X
23%
X-1
17%
2-2
11%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
15.8%
0-0
13.2%
1-1
12.7%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
4.2%
0-2
3.8%
3-1
3.3%
2-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo — Recent Form
Defensa y Justicia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. San Lorenzo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Defensa y JusticiaSan LorenzoOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
San LorenzoDefensa y JusticiaBoth Teams to Score
San LorenzoDefensa y JusticiaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
San LorenzoDefensa y JusticiaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
San LorenzoDefensa y JusticiaFirst Half Result
San LorenzoDefensa y JusticiaCorrect Score
San LorenzoDefensa y Justicia