Aldosivi vs Sarmiento 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 12)

Fair result

Aldosivi

1–3

Sarmiento

1.1Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Aldosivi would usually take 1.2 points and Sarmiento 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Aldosivi.

Aldosivi −1.2 pts vs chancesSarmiento +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Aldosivi

Sarmiento

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

48%

Possession

52%

The match between Aldosivi and Sarmiento ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Aldosivi win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Aldosivi prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aldosivi to win

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 78%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Aldosivi Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aldosivi 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sarmiento 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 75%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Aldosivi1

Sarmiento3

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Aldosivi1

Sarmiento3

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

146%

X27%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	31%	69%	56%	44%	68%	32%	88%	12%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	31%	69%	56%	44%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	68%	32%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	60%	40%	84%	16%	94%	6%
	41%	59%	75%	25%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	60%	40%
	41%	59%	75%	25%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	94%	6%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

128%

X52%

219%

1st Score

153%

X10%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

21%

X-1

18%

X-2

12%

2-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

13.1%

1-1

12.6%

0-0

9.5%

2-1

9.2%

0-1

8.7%

2-0

8.4%

1-2

6.4%

2-2

4.5%

0-2

4.1%

3-0

4.0%

3-1

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Aldosivi vs Sarmiento — Recent Form

Sarmiento have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Aldosivi have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Sarmiento

Aldosivi

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Sarmiento

1/5

Aldosivi

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Sarmiento

1/5

Aldosivi

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Sarmiento

3/5

Aldosivi

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Sarmiento

3/5

Aldosivi

2/5

First Half Result

Sarmiento

2/5

Aldosivi

2/5

Correct Score

Sarmiento

1/5

Aldosivi

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto – Aldosivi prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).