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Portugal vs Croatia 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
UEFA Nations League - Season 2024/2025 League A (Group Stage) (Round 1)
Portugal vs Croatia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Portugal to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,805 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,707 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Portugal ahead at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,629 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).
Our model’s pick
Portugal 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,466 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Croatia 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,366 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Portugal vs Croatia 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Portugal vs Croatia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Portugal2
Croatia1Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Portugal2Croatia1Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 52% | 48% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18% | 82% | 44% | 56% |
 | 40% | 60% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 30% | 86% | 14% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
36%
X-1
19%
X-X
13%
2-2
12%
X-2
8%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-1
10.2%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-0
5.2%
0-1
5.2%
0-0
5.0%
3-2
3.4%
0-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score