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Lithuania vs Azerbaijan 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League D (Group Stage) (Round 2)
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Lithuania to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Lithuania ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Lithuania 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Azerbaijan 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lithuania vs Azerbaijan. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Lithuania1
Azerbaijan1Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Lithuania1Azerbaijan1Winner
1 53%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 62%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 62% | 38% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23% | 77% | 53% | 47% |
 | 43% | 57% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
| 92% | 8% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
36%
X-X
16%
X-1
15%
2-2
12%
X-2
11%
1-X
3%
2-1
3%
2-X
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
12.0%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.7%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
AzerbaijanLithuaniaBoth Teams to Score
AzerbaijanLithuaniaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
AzerbaijanLithuaniaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
AzerbaijanLithuaniaFirst Half Result
AzerbaijanLithuaniaCorrect Score
AzerbaijanLithuania