Malta vs Gibraltar Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League D (Group Stage) (Round 3)
Malta vs Gibraltar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Malta to win
Our track record
In 290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.7% of the time (bookmakers said 77.0%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our track record
In 5,163 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.6% of the time (bookmakers said 57.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 796 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 48.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.3% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,035 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.3%).
Our model’s pick
Malta ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 107 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.9% of the time (bookmakers said 64.6%).
Our model’s pick
Malta 2+ goals
Our track record
In 2,448 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.7% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Our model’s pick
Gibraltar 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 577 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.4% of the time (bookmakers said 85.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Malta vs Gibraltar — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Malta vs Gibraltar. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Malta–
Gibraltar–Winner
1 73%
BTTS**
No 59%
Correct Score
2-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Malta–Gibraltar–Winner
1 73%
BTTS**
No 59%
Correct Score
2-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12% | 88% | 34% | 66% |
 | 62% | 38% | 86% | 14% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 42% | 77% | 23% |
| 96% | 4% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
57%
X-1
16%
X-X
10%
2-2
5%
X-2
4%
1-X
3%
2-1
3%
2-X
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-0
12.1%
1-0
11.0%
3-0
10.7%
2-1
7.9%
1-1
6.8%
3-1
5.6%
0-0
5.0%
0-1
3.9%
1-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Malta vs Gibraltar — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
MaltaGibraltarBoth Teams to Score
MaltaGibraltarOver/Under 2.5 Goals
MaltaGibraltarOver/Under 3.5 Goals
MaltaGibraltarFirst Half Result
MaltaGibraltarCorrect Score
MaltaGibraltar