France vs Italy Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League A (Group Stage) (Round 3)
France vs Italy — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
France to win
Our track record
In 3,154 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 5,163 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.6% of the time (bookmakers said 57.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,617 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,035 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.3%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 2,091 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
France 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,675 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.6% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Italy 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 64.1%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
France vs Italy — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for France vs Italy. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
France–
Italy–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS**
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
France–Italy–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS**
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 52% | 48% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22% | 78% | 51% | 49% |
 | 33% | 67% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
2-2
20%
X-1
15%
X-X
14%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.0%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.4%
0-1
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
5.0%
0-0
4.9%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
3.7%
1-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
France vs Italy — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ItalyFranceBoth Teams to Score
ItalyFranceOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ItalyFranceOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ItalyFranceFirst Half Result
ItalyFranceCorrect Score
ItalyFrance