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France vs Italy 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League A (Group Stage) (Round 3)
France vs Italy — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
France to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,478 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: France ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 2,223 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
France 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: France 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Italy 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
France vs Italy 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for France vs Italy. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
France1
Italy1Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
France1Italy1Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 52% | 48% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22% | 78% | 51% | 49% |
 | 33% | 67% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
2-2
20%
X-1
15%
X-X
14%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
5.0%
0-0
4.8%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
3.7%
1-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
France vs Italy — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ItalyFranceBoth Teams to Score
ItalyFranceOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ItalyFranceOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ItalyFranceFirst Half Result
ItalyFranceCorrect Score
ItalyFrance