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Croatia vs England Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League A (Group Stage) (Round 3)
Croatia vs England — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
England to win
Our track record
In 3,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 2,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
England ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Croatia 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
England 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 841 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Croatia vs England — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Croatia vs England. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Croatia–
England–Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Croatia–England–Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 31% | 69% | 62% | 38% |
 | 22% | 78% | 52% | 48% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 17% | 95% | 5% |
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
27%
1-1
20%
X-1
13%
X-X
12%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.7%
2-1
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
0-2
6.9%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
5.7%
1-3
4.5%
3-1
4.4%
2-0
4.4%
0-0
4.3%
0-3
4.0%
2-3
3.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Croatia vs England — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
CroatiaEnglandBoth Teams to Score
CroatiaEnglandOver/Under 2.5 Goals
CroatiaEnglandOver/Under 3.5 Goals
CroatiaEnglandFirst Half Result
CroatiaEnglandCorrect Score
CroatiaEngland