Iceland vs Bulgaria Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League C (Group Stage) (Round 3)
Iceland vs Bulgaria — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Iceland to win
Our track record
In 3,413 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 3,087 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,197 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,866 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
Our model’s pick
Iceland ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 1,983 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Our model’s pick
Iceland 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,821 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Bulgaria 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,197 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Iceland vs Bulgaria — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Iceland vs Bulgaria. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Iceland–
Bulgaria–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Iceland–Bulgaria–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 56% | 44% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23% | 77% | 53% | 47% |
 | 36% | 64% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 24% | 90% | 10% |
| 87% | 13% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
2-2
18%
X-X
14%
X-1
13%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.3%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.0%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Iceland vs Bulgaria — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
IcelandBulgariaBoth Teams to Score
IcelandBulgariaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
IcelandBulgariaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
IcelandBulgariaFirst Half Result
IcelandBulgariaCorrect Score
IcelandBulgaria