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Estonia vs Luxembourg Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League C (Group Stage) (Round 3)
Estonia vs Luxembourg — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Luxembourg to win
Our track record
In 3,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our track record
In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,682 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 4,292 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Estonia 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Our model’s pick
Luxembourg 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Estonia vs Luxembourg — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Estonia vs Luxembourg. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Estonia–
Luxembourg–Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Estonia–Luxembourg–Winner
X2 73%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 65% | 35% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 39% | 61% | 73% | 27% |
 | 26% | 74% | 59% | 41% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 9% | 97% | 3% |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
28%
X-X
18%
X-2
17%
1-1
14%
X-1
11%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
2%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
1-1
12.4%
0-1
11.9%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.8%
0-0
8.8%
0-2
8.3%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.6%
2-0
4.3%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Estonia vs Luxembourg — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
EstoniaLuxembourgBoth Teams to Score
EstoniaLuxembourgOver/Under 2.5 Goals
EstoniaLuxembourgOver/Under 3.5 Goals
EstoniaLuxembourgFirst Half Result
EstoniaLuxembourgCorrect Score
EstoniaLuxembourg