TPS vs VPS 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 9)

Smash-and-grab

TPS won with less than half the chances

TPS

1–0

VPS

0.1Chances (xG)2.6

On these chances TPS would usually take 0.1 points and VPS 2.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: VPS.

TPS +2.9 pts vs chancesVPS −2.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

TPS vs VPS stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

VPS had more than twice the shots on target

TPS

VPS

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

35%

Possession

65%

The match between TPS and VPS ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a TPS win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: VPS – Inter Turku prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

TPS vs VPS — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: VPS to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 29%

Our track record

In 1,525 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,152 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 40%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

TPS Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

VPS Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VPS 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

TPS vs VPS 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TPS vs VPS. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

TPS1

VPS0

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

TPS1

VPS0

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

140%

X27%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	61%	39%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	60%	40%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	31%	69%	65%	35%	86%	14%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	60%	40%
	31%	69%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	86%	14%	95%	5%

1st Half

132%

X40%

228%

1st Score

149%

X7%

244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

19%

X-X

15%

X-1

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

1-0

9.3%

2-1

9.0%

0-1

8.2%

1-2

7.8%

0-0

6.7%

2-0

6.3%

2-2

6.0%

0-2

5.2%

3-1

3.9%

1-3

3.4%

3-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: VPS – Inter Turku prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).