Ilves vs VPS 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 21)

Fair result

Ilves

0–1

VPS

0.8Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Ilves would usually take 1.0 points and VPS 1.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Ilves.

Ilves −1.0 pts vs chancesVPS +1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ilves vs VPS stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

VPS had more than twice the shots on target

Ilves

VPS

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

56%

Possession

44%

The match between Ilves and VPS ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Ilves win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: HJK – VPS prediction & betting tips (Oct 8, 2026).

Ilves vs VPS — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves to win

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,361 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.5%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,140 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,284 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 40%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Ilves Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

VPS Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VPS 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,605 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ilves vs VPS 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ilves vs VPS. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Ilves0

VPS1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Ilves0

VPS1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 60%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 54%

Full Time

144%

X25%

230%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%	54%	46%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	54%	46%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	52%	48%	77%	23%	91%	9%
	32%	68%	64%	36%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	52%	48%
	32%	68%	64%	36%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	77%	23%	91%	9%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

134%

X40%

226%

1st Score

151%

X5%

244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-X

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.6%

2-1

9.1%

1-0

8.2%

1-2

7.0%

2-0

6.6%

0-1

6.5%

2-2

6.4%

0-0

5.2%

3-1

5.1%

0-2

4.0%

3-0

3.9%

1-3

3.5%

3-2

3.5%

2-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: HJK – VPS prediction & betting tips (Oct 8, 2026).