Ilves vs HJK 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 22)

Fair result

Ilves

1–2

HJK

1.0Chances (xG)2.6

On these chances Ilves would usually take 0.5 points and HJK 2.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: HJK.

Ilves −0.5 pts vs chancesHJK +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ilves vs HJK stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Ilves

HJK

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

43%

Possession

58%

The match between Ilves and HJK ended 1-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an HJK win with 48% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: HJK – KuPS prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Ilves vs HJK — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

HJK to win

Correct

Our model 48%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 65%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 406 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 65.2%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 286 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 37%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Ilves Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ilves 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

HJK Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

HJK 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ilves vs HJK 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ilves vs HJK. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Ilves1

HJK2

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

Ilves1

HJK2

Winner

X2 70%

BTTS*

Yes 65%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

130%

X22%

248%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	16%	84%	34%	66%	45%	55%	72%	28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	16%	84%	34%	66%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	45%	55%	72%	28%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	31%	69%	61%	39%	83%	17%	93%	7%
	20%	80%	47%	53%	71%	29%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	31%	69%	61%	39%
	20%	80%	47%	53%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	93%	7%
	71%	29%	88%	12%

1st Half

126%

X37%

236%

1st Score

140%

X4%

256%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

30%

1-1

17%

X-X

13%

X-2

13%

X-1

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

9.0%

1-2

8.7%

2-1

6.9%

1-3

6.8%

0-1

6.7%

2-2

6.7%

0-2

6.1%

1-0

5.0%

2-3

4.4%

3-1

3.8%

0-0

3.8%

2-0

3.8%

0-3

3.3%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: HJK – KuPS prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).