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FC Bayern München vs Arsenal 2-2 Score & Prediction Review
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 3)
FC Bayern München2–2
ArsenalOn these chances FC Bayern München would usually take 1.8 points and Arsenal 1.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Bayern München.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →FC Bayern München vs Arsenal stats: how the match was played
Champions League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
FC Bayern München
Arsenal
5
Shots on target
5
4
Big chances
3
3
Corners
5
0
Yellow cards
2
46%
Possession
54%
FC Bayern München vs Arsenal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 941 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.
Our track record
In 549 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Arsenal 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,274 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Bayern München vs Arsenal 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FC Bayern München vs Arsenal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
FC Bayern München2
Arsenal2Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
FC Bayern München2Arsenal2Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 36% | 64% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 43% | 57% |
| 40% | 60% | 69% | 31% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 33% | 84% | 16% |
| 87% | 13% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
41%
X-1
17%
2-2
13%
X-X
11%
X-2
6%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.1%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
7.0%
1-0
6.8%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
0-0
4.5%
0-1
4.4%
3-2
4.0%
0-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
FC Bayern München vs Arsenal — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FC Bayern MünchenArsenalBoth Teams to Score
FC Bayern MünchenArsenalOver/Under 2.5 Goals
FC Bayern MünchenArsenalOver/Under 3.5 Goals
FC Bayern MünchenArsenalFirst Half Result
FC Bayern MünchenArsenalCorrect Score
FC Bayern MünchenArsenal