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Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol Rovers

Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol Rovers 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Fair result

Shrewsbury Town

1–0

Bristol Rovers

1.5Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Shrewsbury Town would usually take 2.1 points and Bristol Rovers 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bristol Rovers.

Shrewsbury Town +0.9 pts vs chancesBristol Rovers −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol Rovers stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Shrewsbury Town had more than twice the shots on target

Shrewsbury Town

Bristol Rovers

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Shrewsbury Town and Bristol Rovers ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Shrewsbury Town win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol Rovers — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shrewsbury Town to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Bristol Rovers to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,525 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,451 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 4,550 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,231 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Shrewsbury Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Shrewsbury Town 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,451 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Bristol Rovers Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bristol Rovers 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,263 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol Rovers 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol Rovers. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Shrewsbury Town1

Bristol Rovers0

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

League Two - England

Shrewsbury Town1

Bristol Rovers0

Winner

1X 67%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

140%

X27%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	62%	38%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	62%	38%	84%	16%	94%	6%
	33%	67%	66%	34%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	62%	38%
	33%	67%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	94%	6%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

126%

X49%

226%

1st Score

145%

X8%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

X-X

18%

2-2

18%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.6%

1-0

9.9%

0-1

9.0%

2-1

8.2%

0-0

7.9%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

6.5%

0-2

5.7%

2-2

5.4%

3-1

3.8%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Shrewsbury Town vs Bristol Rovers — Recent Form

Shrewsbury Town have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Bristol Rovers have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 16th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Shrewsbury Town

Bristol Rovers

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Shrewsbury Town

2/5

Bristol Rovers

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Shrewsbury Town

2/5

Bristol Rovers

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Shrewsbury Town

2/5

Bristol Rovers

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Shrewsbury Town

3/5

Bristol Rovers

3/5

First Half Result

Shrewsbury Town

3/5

Bristol Rovers

2/5

Correct Score

Shrewsbury Town

0/5

Bristol Rovers

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).